Department of Our Collapsing Collapsed Schools

Sweet bleeding jeebus. Even I didn’t think it was this bad.

Via Gary Cruse of The Owner’s Manual comes this OC Register column (registration required, or use username: nombre password: letmein – bugmenot works!). Just read it.

America as it ain’t
It’s no exaggeration to say the ignorance of college students is staggering

By Richard Nehrbass
The Huntington Beach resident is a professor of management at Cal State Dominguez Hills.

After America won its independence from Germany in the 19th century and Fidel Castro became the first ruler of the Soviet Union, Betsy Ross wrote “The Star Spangled Banner.”

Wait, that’s not right. It was after the Emancipation Proclamation secured our independence from France and Tolstoy established his reputation as a singer and Stalin became the president of Italy.

No, this isn’t “magic realism,” or some obscure French philosopher’s post-modernist view of history. It’s our world, as understood by our children. Grown children, sitting in my classes at a campus of the California State University, and almost entirely the product of California’s public schools. To reach my classes, they have successfully navigated 12 years of American public education, graduating in the top third of their class. They have a history of A and B grades, they have admirable SAT scores. They are the flower of their generation. And they know almost nothing about their country, their culture or the world in general.

So serious is this problem that it is now often impossible for a college teacher to hold a discussion about anything that took place more than 15 years ago. Ask about Jimmy Carter, Gandhi or the Depression – or World War II or William Wordsworthor the civil rights movement of the ’60s – and it’s likely no one will know what you’re talking about. Most of my students can’t explain the difference between the political parties, or what the United Nations is, or name a single member of the president’s Cabinet. They don’t read newspapers or magazines, seldom watch the news on television, and think actually reading a book is an exotic and particularly cruel form of punishment.

Exaggerated? Unbelievable? Actually, it’s even worse – as I discovered when I gave a short general knowledge quiz to my students the first day of class. There was nothing difficult about the test, just the sorts of things you would imagine no one could reach adulthood without knowing. When I collected the papers, one young woman told me she was “embarrassed” at what she didn’t know. We all should be.

A few examples:

The vast majority of these soon-to-be college grads were not aware of even the most basic facts concerning their nation’s history. Most, for example, could not identify the decade of any of America’s wars. Any! Most couldn’t identify the century. A mere 16 percent were able to date the beginning of the Revolutionary War to the 1770s, and only 12 percent chose the 1860s as the time of the Civil War. Two-thirds were unable to date the War of 1812. The mind boggles.

America’s enemies in these wars? Fewer than one in three knew Great Britain was their country’s foe in the American Revolution. Most weren’t even able to work out who the United States fought in the “Korean” or “Vietnam” wars. When asked where the words “Four score and seven years ago” came from, only 17 percent were able to identify the Gettysburg Address. And just 17 percent (presumably the same students) knew what those six words meant.

To test simple arithmetic skills, I asked what 70 percent of 240 was. This is middle school stuff. But most had no idea how to figure it out. When asked to make change for a $5 bill when a purchase came to $1.37, one-quarter of California’s future bachelors of science weren’t able to figure it out.

Perhaps the problem is they’re too busy studying current events. Perhaps, but only 16 percent could name California’s two senators, and only 29 percent knew the Senate was composed of 100 members, though one soon-to-be grad said, “Fifty, two from each state.”

World history? One student out of more than 100 – one! – could identify the authors of the Communist Manifesto. Two knew what the Magna Carta was. Joseph Stalin was the leader of what country? Sixty-one percent were clueless, though some thought perhaps Italy or Germany. Only 4 percent chose Lenin as the first leader of the Soviet Union.

The humanities? Two percent knew Keats was a poet, 12 percent could identify D.H. Lawrence, and 18 percent Tolstoy and Stravinsky. Gerald Ford, though, will be delighted to learn that half of California’s best and brightest lauded him as the inventor of the automobile.

There were some positive results, of course. Sixty percent knew Nixon was the president who resigned in office, 95 percent chose Sacramento as their state’s capital, and 81 percent more or less knew what the Holocaust referred to. (“When jewes were killed” and “killing of ethnical group” are actual quotes from soon-to-be university grads.) And 76 percent knew what happened on Pearl Harbor Day (“There was a bombing in the shape of a mushroom which killed many people and destroyed lands.”)

But enough. After all, it’s the system, not the students, that is at fault. Our young people are not stupid. Indeed, many are quite brilliant. But it’s time we asked why after 12-plus years in our public schools, and a backpack full of As and Bs, they know so little about the world they live in. And it’s past time for our nation’s schoolteachers to take responsibility for what goes on in their classrooms. As things stand, they should be as “embarrassed” at the product of their labor as some of their own graduates are.

Go read Gary’s commentary. Then read Billy Beck’s.

I can’t add anything to that.

College students! Jeebus!

UPDATE: Rodger Schultz, in his inimitable way, has a post up on public education.

From 1980 to 2002, in real money, spending per pupil in public schools increased by $3,600, rising from $5,400 per student to $9,000. That is a two-thirds spending increase.

The result .. (you guessed the result 20 years ago didn’t you, ya big smart alek)? Last year U.S. students (8th graders) finished 15th in math and ninth in science when measured against 45 countries.

(*sigh*)

Which reminds me of the 1983 report of the National Commission on Excellence in Education that stated:

If an unfriendly foreign power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today,we might well have viewed it as an act of war. As it stands, we have allowed this to happen to ourselves. We have in fact, been committing an act of unthinking, unilateral educational disarmament.

I don’t think it was “unthinking.” I believe Connie du Toit had it right.

The other day our Carpenter’s helper heard me say something along the lines of, “it is difficult to conclude that incompetence is the reason why our public schools have deteriorated. There comes a point where you have to suspect sabotage, or a conspiracy.”

He asked me if I really meant that. I gave him the five minute explanation of John Dewey’s known affiliation with communists, his frequent essays and articles about the wonders of the Soviet education system, and his quote, “You can’t make Socialists out of individualists. Children who know how to think for themselves spoil the harmony of the collective society which is coming where everyone is interdependent.”

I then went on to tell him about how public schools changed at the turn of the last century. That there were others involved in turning Americans from free-thinking individualists to factory drones. I also added that many people probably went along with it because it seemed like a good idea, but there were certainly enough people behind the scenes, who knew that the goal posts had been moved. THAT is a conspiracy.

Yes. There does come that time when you are forced to don the tinfoil hat.

The incompetence excuse only works once. Incompetence this great is impossible to attribute to accident.

Or is it, really, war? And there’s been no “education 9/11” to wake us up to the fact?

‘Unintelligible’? I Understood Him!

I just spent the last hour watching C-SPAN’s Q and A interview of Roger Ailes that I mentioned below. I also read the transcript, as I (if you haven’t noticed) do a bit of transcribing myself from time to time. I found this interesting. From the transcript:

LAMB: How can you tell when you’re making somebody crazy and they’re in your presence?

AILES: Well, they usually try to persuade me that I’m either wrong or nuts, and certainly a bad person for not agreeing with them. And generally, when you start a debate and they try to do that, you know you’re making them crazy.

LAMB: But what is it? I mean, go back to what we were talking about in the beginning. What is it that gets under their skin about this network?

AILES: Look, they suspect we like America. They suspect that we think…

LAMB: Do they really hate America?

AILES: No, they don’t hate it. They just — are constantly telling you what’s wrong. There’s never a good story about this country. We don’t — you know, the American people don’t hear that. We don’t — you know, we don’t promote something that isn’t true, but we will put it in context. I mean, 95 percent of our people are working. That doesn’t say we don’t have an unemployment problem, you know, in Ohio and Michigan and some of those places. It doesn’t mean that there isn’t outsourcing. It doesn’t mean — you have to cover those, but you have to put it in a context. (UNINTELLIGIBLE). You have to put it in a context of what we have. And that’s part of the news. Part of the news is all the facts. And we try to do that. That makes us a little different.

It wasn’t unintelligible. I understood him clearly.

He asked, “Do you want to live in Somalia?”

Good question.

Interesting Coincidences

I am an avid reader. Sometimes a voracious one. I’d rather read than do pretty much anything else, given the choice. So I always have something to read when I go to lunch, and usually it’s a book or a magazine. I almost never, however, read newspapers. At least, not the dead-tree versions. Being the gun nut Second Amendment defender that I am, I am intimately aware of what Michael Crichton termed the “Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect” (PDF):

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

That is the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect.

Thus was the art of “fisking” invented.

Anyway, if I want to read the news, I get it on-line now, generally. Besides, the two local papers, the Tucson Citizen and the Arizona Daily Star are generally Left and Far-Left respectively, so I don’t feel like giving them my money. But today I picked up a copy of the Star so I’d have something to read with lunch.

And I stumbled across this op-ed by Leonard Pitts, Jr. where he decries falling newspaper circulation, and relates the efforts of a Chilean newspaper to counter this fall by, well, giving the readers what they apparently want.

Mr. Pitts does not approve.

Mr. Pitts does not approve because the plebes choose to read brain candy rather than hard-hitting news such as “stories about budget deficits, congressional summits, and other boring stuff nobody cares about.”

How dare they!

Leonard blames the newspaper’s problems on “bean counters.” He says the paper where he works (the Miami Herald),

…is a place where costs are cut with the mad glee of an ax murderer, talented people are being shoveled out the door, and editors are required to prostrate themselves before the altar of the holy profit margin.

He has a point, actually. I’ve said myself that the worst thing to happen, at least to television news, was the discovery that the news department could be a profit center rather than a money-pit.

Newspapers, (and news magazines) on the other hand, have always been profit-driven. They haven’t had large commercial networks behind them to cover the payroll and the light bills. Thus “yellow journalism” was driven as much by a desire to sell newspapers as for idealism. But times have changed, and for one thing, people suffer less from Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect than they used to. The internet has had much to do with that.

As you’re no doubt aware, Time magazine awarded Power Line its “Blog of the Year” award. The guys at Power Line excerpted this from that story:

The story of how three amateur journalists working in a homegrown online medium challenged a network news legend and won has many, many game-changing angles to it. One of the strangest and most radical is that the key information in “The 61st Minute” came from Power Line’s readers, not its ostensible writers. The Power Liners are quick, even eager, to point this out. “What this story shows more than anything is the power of the medium,” Hinderaker says. “The world is full of smart people who have information about every imaginable topic, and until the Internet came along, there wasn’t any practical way to put it together.”

Now there is.

I believe that 60 Minute‘s viewership has fallen off dramatically since “the 61st Minute.” I think a good chunk of the falling newspaper circulation is due to similar reasons. There may still be a large audience willing to read “brain candy” from the press, but there are a LOT of people who still want to read about “budget deficits, congressional summits, and other boring stuff” – we just want the facts. We’re tired of being told what to THINK about it by people who don’t understand what it is they’re writing about. If we want an editorial, we’ll go to the editorial page.

I was listening to Hugh Hewitt on the way home from work this afternoon, and he was playing excerpts from C-SPAN’s “Q and A” interview of Roger Ailes. Roger is head-honcho of FOX News, a man with his finger on the pulse of what does and what does not attract an audience, I think. Hugh quotes Roger on his answer to the question, “What do they teach in journalism school?”

Well I think they get too political from time to time. I think they draw conclusions for students, at least many of the ones that I have talked to. They don’t necessarily teach them the simple things of gather all the facts, present all the facts. I think in many cases they have agendas. You know, I was asked by a university to give them some money and I went to the university and I taught a couple of classes and I interviewed a bunch of students and I said: ‘I’m not going to give you any money until you can graduate somebody who likes America. It’s not a bad country you know. Soon as you get me somebody like that I’ll get you some money , but based on what they’re learning, you’d think we lived somewhere else.’

Hewett expands:

The anti-Americanism of many elite media is palpable, and increasingly resented by Americans of all backgrounds. Ailes knows this, and knows as well that any network that simply does not attack America on a nightly basis will be ahead of CNN.

The same holds for newspapers, and Mr. Pitts should understand that and stop blaming the moronic public on the one hand, and the parsimonious bean-counters on the other. If he wants to see the reason for falling circulation, perhaps he and his professional breathren ought to spend some time staring into a mirror.

Failing that, he can go ahead and get into the bed-and-breakfast industry, and leave the news and analysis to the rising amateurs and semi-pros of the blogosphere.

This is TOO Cool!

On Nov. 12 I ordered six copies of Bill Whittle’s book Silent America (five are Christmas presents). They finally came in today. Nice!

But the icing on the cake is that Bill has included a few pages of comments praising his essays (as they do on many books – quotes from the reviewers) and he included one of mine!

I’m touched. (In the head, but don’t let that bother you.)

Have you ordered your copies?

Here’s What Can Happen When You Stand Up for Your Rights

Jason of Fish or Man has been arrested for exercising his right to carry. His court date is Dec. 23. He needs some help with the legal fees or a 2nd Amendment-friendly lawyer willing to work pro-bono.

Read his story.

Do it now.

UPDATE: Reader Sam comments:

Stupid question here, but doesn’t he just need a copy of the state laws saying he’s allowed open carry?

To which reader Markm replied:

It sounds like they are also trying to pile on bogus non-gun charges – and once he beats those, he should also sue the PD or they’ll just keep on doing this shit.

Which reminded me (again) of the quotation from Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged:

There is no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is to crack down on criminals. When there aren’t enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking the law. Create a nation of lawbreakers and then you can cash in on the guilt. Now that’s the system!

I’m sure Jason will be charged with a myriad of offenses, and the prosecutor will offer him a deal to drop everything if he’ll just plead to one charge.



That charge, of course, will be sufficient to strip him of his right to arms. Remember, if you’ve ever been convicted of any crime for which you might have received a sentence of more than one year, or if you’ve been convicted of any felony, you lose your right to arms.



Can’t have the citizens getting uppity, now.

The London Sunday Telegraph Keeps It Up

And good for them. The entry for today is more letters from supporters of the effort. The Telegraph reports that they’ve received 100,000 mail-in cards, and along with them, a lot of stories of the victims of crime. I won’t reproduce them all, but here’s a choice sampling.

Burglary has afflicted us on several occasions. Several years ago I disturbed a man in my house and grabbed an Indian club with which to protect myself. In the heat of the moment, threatened by a provocative move, I lashed out, hitting his outstretched leg and breaking his tibia. He made his escape, albeit limping, and I alerted the constabulary.

The intruder went to hospital. To my absolute amazement I was arrested for causing grievous bodily harm. Little sympathy was afforded to me as the householder because he had not actually removed any property except a quantity of banknotes, which of course I could not prove were mine.

The case was “thrown out” of court on a technicality, but the memory of how near I had been to a possible period of incarceration, merely for defending what was mine, is still with me.



Intruders may or may not be armed with a weapon, but one cannot be sure. If they show intent to attack, then they deserve what they get.

Derek Godfrey-Brown, Okehampton, Devon

That’s OK, Derek, they put the fear of God Government in you. It’s that “chilling effect” they’re going for, you know. If an agent of government injures or kills someone, it’s “the legitimate use of force.” If a citizen subject harms another, it’s “lawless violence.” Semantics is everything.

Here’s another:

We have been subjected to three burglaries at our pub: once while we were sleeping upstairs and twice while we were busy downstairs. Only one of those burglaries has ever been solved.

However, I was myself arrested after I caught some teenagers tearing down trees in my garden. They were attempting to light a bonfire behind my wooden shed, which would have gone up in flames. I did not harm them, but I was holding one by the wrist when the police arrived. Five days later, I was charged with assault. Fortunately the charge was withdrawn the day before I was due to appear in court. It was a very distressing experience. I don’t know why the police pursued the case – if I told you what I thought about them, I would probably get sued for libel.

I was a detective in the Metropolitan Police for 31 years before my retirement in 1985, but things have changed an awful lot since those days.

Graham A McIntosh, Hawkwell, Essex

Mr. McIntosh was a former police officer (probably quite familiar with the procedures for detaining subjects) and he was charged with assault. Again, there’s that “chilling effect” of the government telling its subjects “YOU’RE NOT QUALIFIED!” You know these stories get around, and as a result people are more than a little reticent to defend themselves out of fear of prosecution.

Another:

This is an issue I feel strongly about, instinctively, so I am eager to hear arguments against the proposition, so that my views should be rational as well as emotional.

I have not heard any. I have heard a great deal of name-calling (in other newspapers). There is a defeatist argument that such measures will cause criminals to be more violent – a counsel of despair, if ever I heard one – and fanciful speculation about householders arming themselves. There is the lofty condescension of the “liberal elite”, as William Hague called them, that the law is perfectly adequate. And, of course, the astonishing ignorance of the Attorney General about the number of prosecutions of homeowners and the persecution they suffer from the Crown Prosecution Service.

More power to your campaign.

Mike Fowle, Felixstowe, Suffolk

Hmm… A “liberal elite” that professes that “the law is perfectly adequate.” Remind you of anyone?

Next:

I am 84 years old. Any burglar is certain to be far more strong and agile than I. In order to have any chance to defend myself and my home, I must have the use of a weapon that can supply the power I have lost.

Ury Baruch, London W5

Took the words right out of my mouth. Sorry, Ury. The government doesn’t trust you with that much power.

This woman has taken Ury’s appeal to heart. Hopefully it won’t get her arrested:

I am a widow in my eighties and I live alone. I am appalled and sickened by the pictures of old ladies who have been burgled, beaten up and in some cases, murdered. I do not intend to have that happen to me and so I keep a weapon in my bedroom.

Lady Summerfield, Folkestone, Kent

You can bet, however, that her weapon of choice won’t be a firearm. I doubt an 80+ year-old woman could show “need” for one, since “self defense” isn’t an acceptable reason. She could always pop into London for a bit. I understand you can pick up a pistol pretty cheaply there, if you know the right guy.

I Expect Much Frothing and Gnashing of Teeth

As most of my readers are probably aware, the Justice Department has just released a memorandum that states in no uncertain terms that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to arms. The report is dated August, 2004, but it was released apparently yesterday. It was authored by Steven G. Bradbury, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General; Howard C. Nielson, Jr., Deputy Assistant Attorney General; and C. Kevin Marshall; Acting Deputy Assistant Attorney General.

The report concludes:

For the foregoing reasons, we conclude that the Second Amendment secures an individual right to keep and to bear arms. Current case law leaves open and unsettled the question of whose right is secured by the Amendment. Although we do not address the scope of the right, our examination of the original meaning of the Amendment provides extensive reasons to conclude that the Second Amendment secures an individual right, and no persuasive basis for either the collective-right or quasi-collective-right views. The text of the Amendment’s operative clause, setting out a “right of the people to keep and bear Arms,” is clear and is reinforced by the Constitution’s structure. The Amendment’s prefatory clause, properly understood, is fully consistent with this interpretation. The broader history of the Anglo-American right of individuals to have and use arms, from England’s Revolution of 1688-1689 to the ratification of the Second Amendment a hundred years later, leads to the same conclusion. Finally, the first hundred years of interpretations of the Amendment, and especially the commentaries and case law in the pre-Civil War period closest to the Amendment’s ratification, confirm what the text and history of the Second Amendment require.

Now all we have to do is get the Federal Appeals courts to overturn stare decisis and start making decisions based on that interpretation.

For example, in the Ninth Circuit’s recent denial to re-hear its Silveira decision en-banc, the Court once again upheld its precedent from Hickman v. Block that concluded that the right to arms was collective, not individual. However, several judges on the circuit wrote dissents, some scathing. My favorite was Judge Kozinski’s. In the Ninth Circuit’s denial to re-hear Nordyke v. King en-banc, this vocal dissent was repeated, with judge Jay Gould stating:

I believe Hickman was wrongly decided. An “individual rights” interpretation, as was recently adopted by the Fifth Circuit in United States v. Emerson is most consistent with the text, structure, purposes and history of the Second Amendment, as well as colonial experience and pre-adoption history. It also reflects what I consider to be the scholarly consensus that has recently developed on the question of how to best interpret the Second Amendment. We should recognize that individual citizens have a constitutional right to keep and bear arms, subject – in the same manner as all other core constitutional rights – to certain limits. Thereafter, the chips will fall where they may, and decisions in due course will clarify what is and is not constitutionally permissible regulation, and the further standards for addressing it.

We’re still building momentum. Perhaps the courts may still save us. The gun ban control crowd must be seething.

Evidence of Absence

While still overwhelmed with work, travelling and otherwise, I’ve neglected my posting here in order to trade barbs engage in discourse over at Tim Lambert’s Deltoid blog. There I was made aware this evening that the National Academy of Sciences’ panel on firearms and violence has released a new report. The full report, should you wish to purchase it, is available here. (I wonder who funded the report?) You can read it for free (for the time being) here. Obviously I haven’t had time to read the thing yet, but I have read the press release, and I’ve also read the opening speech given at the press conference.

Now, I find it fascinating that both Tim Lambert and one of his syncophants have latched on to the finding that:

There is no credible evidence that “right-to-carry” laws, which allow qualified adults to carry concealed handguns, either decrease or increase violent crime.

In fact, Tim’s commenter put it thusly:

(T)he results published yesterday by the NAS Committee on Firearms and Violence have demolished (yet again) the claim that the adoption of a shall issue law reduces crime.

To be fair, Tim also quotes these findings:

There is almost no evidence that violence-prevention programs intended to steer children away from guns have had any effects on their behavior, knowledge, or attitudes regarding firearms. More than 80 such programs exist.

And

Research has found associations between gun availability and suicide with guns, but it does not show whether such associations reveal genuine patterns of cause and effect.

The second does not surprise me, and the third is what I’ve said for a long time.

This report was released yesterday, December 16, 2004. In the opening statement by Professor Charles F. Wellford, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice and Director of the Maryland Justice Analysis Center made those three points listed above and noted that they were “(t)he committee’s major conclusion”. Let me quote him verbatim so that we all are on the same page here:

The committee’s major conclusion, however, is that the existing data and research methods cannot answer some of the most pressing policy issues in this area. Although there have been some well-designed studies on policy issues, the underlying data and the methods used are not strong enough to draw policy conclusions. For example:
The literature on “right-to-carry” laws has obtained conflicting estimates of their effects on crime, despite the fact that data and methods used in these studies differ in only minor ways. Thirty-four states have enacted these laws, which allow qualified adults to carry concealed handguns. However, we found no credible evidence that such policies either decrease or increase violent crime.
There is no credible evidence that the more than 80 gun-violence prevention programs reviewed by the committee have had any effect on children’s or teens’ attitudes, knowledge, or behavior regarding firearms.
And although research does show associations between gun availability and suicide with guns, that research does not show whether such associations reflect actual cause and effect.

Now this reminded me of another such study of all the then-available gun control research that was published in 1983 – twenty-one years ago. That study was performed at the behest of the Carter administration by James D. Wright, Professor of Human Relations, Dept. of Sociology for Tulane University; Peter H. Rossi, Professor of Sociology at the University of Massachusetts (Amherst) and past president of the American Sociological Association; and Kathleen Daly, Professor of Sociology at Yale University, and it was published under the title Under the Gun: Weapons, Crime, and Violence in America. The preface to that report states:

In 1978 the Social and Demographic Research Institute of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, received a grant from the National Institute of Justice to undertake a comprehensive review of the literature on weapons, crime, and violence in the United States. The purpose of the project is best described as a “sifting and winnowing” of the claims and counterclaims from both sides of the Great American Gun War – the perennial struggle in American political life over what to do, if anything, about guns, about violence, and about crime. The review and analysis of the available studies consumed the better part of three years; the results of this work are contained in this volume.

The intention of any review is to take stock of the available fund of knowledge in some topical area. Under the Gun is no different: our goal has been to glean from the volumes of previous studies those facts that, in our view, seem firmly and certainly established; those hypotheses that seem adequately supported by, or at least approximately consistent with, the best available research evidence; and those areas or topics about which, it seems, we need to know a lot more than we do. One of our major conclusions can be stated in advance: despite the large number of studies that have been done, many critically important questions have not been adequately researched, and some of them have not been examined at all.

Much of the available research in the area of weapons and crime has been done by advocates for one or another policy position. (Big freaking surprise.) As a consequence, the manifest intent of many “studies” is to persuade rather than to inform.

And times haven’t changed, at least in that regard.

Flash forward twenty-one years, and compare and contrast that with this statement from yesterday’s press conference:

Should regulations restrict who may possess firearms? Should there be restrictions on the number or types of guns that can be purchased? Should safety locks be required? Answers to these questions involve issues that go beyond research on firearm violence.

These policy questions cannot be informed by current studies. Available data are too weak to support strong conclusions. Therefore, we believe that one of the most pressing needs is to pursue the data and research that are needed to fill knowledge gaps and, in turn, inform debate in this important policy area. Our committee identified key approaches to strengthen the research base on firearms and violence. We also believe that the federal government should support a rigorous research program in this area.

Research linking firearms to criminal violence and suicide is limited by a lack of credible data on firearm ownership (including possession and access) and individuals’ encounters with violence. The committee found that the existing data on gun ownership and use are the biggest barriers to better understanding gun violence. Without better data, many basic questions cannot be answered. Such data will not solve all problems of methodology. However, the almost complete absence of this information from the scientific literature makes it extremely difficult to understand the complex interpersonal, social, and other factors that determine whether or not a firearm will be used to commit a violent act.

We’ve gone 21 years since publication of Under the Gun, millions of dollars and thousands of man-hours have been invested in research on gun control and gun violence, and still most of the data is contradictory, useless, or non-existent.

So what does the National Acadamy of Science want? More money to do more studies, of course! After all, that’s what research scientists are for!

I applaud their doggedness.

But here’s the point I want to make. While absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, what we have here is not an absence of evidence. We have decades of evidence. If there were unequivocal evidence that “gun control” was effective at reducing gun violence, shouldn’t decades of research have irrefutably shown that? For example, gun ban control advocates protest shrilly in each state that contemplates “shall-issue” concealed weapon legislation, with dire predictions of “blood in the streets” and murder and mayhem over traffic accidents. They protest that such legislation will result in “more guns on the street” and a subsequent increase in homicide and accidental shootings.

Yet it never happens. And they steadfastly ignore the record of each previous state to enact such legislation, even if those states are adjacent to the one they are currently protesting in. So the National Academies of Science have concluded, “we found no credible evidence that such policies either decrease or increase violent crime.” Had such evidence existed, given the amount of time and money hurled at the question, shouldn’t someone have found it? Tim Lambert says about it:

The conclusion was not that the laws have no effect, but that the evidence doesn’t tell us what effect, if any, the laws have.

If the evidence is studied and found to be inconclusive, how does this differ from the law having no effect? There can be only two conclusions drawn:

(1) The evidence suggests that whatever the effect is, it’s lost in the statistical noise inherent in the data (i.e.: the effect is negligible).

(2) The “evidence” is so distorted that the signal-to-noise ratio overwhelms the data so that no useful information can be extracted.

My position is, obviously, option (1). Tim’s is, equally obviously, option (2). But understand, the gun ban position is that gun violence will go up, and that doesn’t happen unless you cherry-pick your data. The John Lott position is that gun violence will go down – and that doesn’t happen unless you cherry-pick your data. When you throw in all the so-called “research” done by advocates, the noise overwhelms the signal. But if the research is done by non-advocates (there must be some), the signal is still lost in the statistical noise. The conclusion I draw is that “shall-issue” laws don’t have a noticeable effect on overall violent crime – but they have a definite effect for those few who exercise the ability to carry concealed and who have used their concealed weapons defensively. Without those laws, those people would very probably have been crime victims, and today they are not.

This is a net good. As I said in a comment at Tim’s:

If the worst you can say about “shall issue” is that it doesn’t provably reduce crime, then I’m all for it, since it positively expands the right to arms. BUT if you cannot prove beyond doubt that “gun control” reduces crime, then I strongly recommend rolling back “gun control” laws to restore an infringed right to the people who were promised in writing that it wouldn’t be infringed.

I’d like to finish this piece with another quote from the conclusion of Under the Gun:

The progressive’s indictment of American firearms policy is well known and is one that both the senior authors of this study once shared. This indictment includes the following particulars: (1) Guns are involved in an astonishing number of crimes in this country. (2) In other countries with stricter firearms laws and fewer guns in private hands, gun crime is rare. (3) Most of the firearms involved in crime are cheap Saturday Night Specials, for which no legitimate use or need exists. (4) Many families acquire such a gun because they feel the need to protect themselves; eventually they end up shooting one another. (5) If there were fewer guns around, there would obviously be less crime. (6) Most of the public also believes this and has favored stricter gun control laws for as long as anyone has asked the question. (7) Only the gun lobby prevents us from embarking on the road to a safer and more civilized society.

The more deeply we have explored the empirical implications of this indictment, the less plausible it has become. We wonder, first, given the number of firearms presently available in the United States, whether the time to “do something” about them has not long since passed. If we take the highest plausible value for the total number of gun incidents in any given year – 1,000,000 – and the lowest plausible value for the total number of firearms now in private hands – 100,000,000 – we see rather quickly that the guns now owned exceed the annual incident count by a factor of at least 100. This means that the existing stock is adequate to supply all conceivable criminal purposes for at least the entire next century, even if the worldwide manufacture of new guns were halted today and if each presently owned firearm were used criminally once and only once. Short of an outright house-to-house search and seizure mission, just how are we going to achieve some significant reduction in the number of firearms available?

If “the number of guns” is the cause of gun crime in America, which is a shibboleth of the gun-ban crowd, then Wright, Rossi, and Daly just hit on the fundamental truth of gun control in America. They understand it. We understand it. And we believe the gun ban crowd understands it, however much they protest that they don’t want to confiscate anything.

Having a Wonderful Time

Over at Tim Lambert’s blog arguing the London Sunday Telegraph‘s “bash-a-burglar” campaign with his commenters.

Unfortunately, I’m going to be incommunicado the next two days. Damn.

UPDATE, 12/15: Back at it again. I love a “target rich” environment.

I Love Living in Arizona

From a thread at AR15.com:

My son turned 11 last week, so Saturday afternoon we took him and a bunch of his friends to the local pizza joint / video arcade. A nice way to spend the afternoon….the adults sit around, eat pizza, drink beer and BS while the kids play video games.

Late in the afternoon I was wandering the arcade and found my son playing one of the shoot ’em up games with the tethered pistol that you “shoot” at the video screen. My son was really getting into the game and started holding the pistol sideways – gangsta style. My first reaction as I walked up was to say “Stop that. You know better.”

The mother of one of his friends looked at me and asked “Is he not allowed to play violent games? I don’t allow MY children to play them.”

I replied, “Sure, he can play them, but he’s not allowed to have bad form. Son, square up your stance, use both hands, and don’t cross your thumbs.”

She was still spluttering when I walked away.

From a Phoenix member.