Interesting Statistics

Reported recently in an Arizona paper comes these statistics on concealed-carry permits in Arizona:

BY THE NUMBERS: CONCEALED
WEAPONS
• Total number of permits in the state as of April 4: 154,279
• Number of permits suspended: 1,785
• Number of permits revoked: 1,011
• Number of women who have a permit: 33,053
• Among women, the 50 to 59 age group has the largest number of permits at 9,050.
• Number of women over the age of 80 who have permits: 177
• Number of men who have a permit: 125,582
• Among men, the 60-69 age group has the largest number of permits at 28,380.
• According to the Arizona Department of Public Safety, some of the revoked or suspended permits may have been reinstated since the state started keeping records in 1994.
• The four counties with the largest number of permits in the state: Maricopa: 81,375; Pima: 25,246; Yavapai: 9,521; Mohave: 8,726

So, out of 154,279 permits issued, 1,011 (0.655%) have been revoked.

The largest groups taking advantage of concealed carry permits are older men and women.

There are some feisty octogenarian ladies in this state.

Somehow, 33,053 + 125,582 = 154,729

The Knowledge Problem

Yesterday I quoted a bit from Glenn Reynold’s weekend piece Progressives can’t get past the Knowledge Problem wherein he also wrote:

Economist Friedrich Hayek explained in 1945 why centrally controlled “command economies” were doomed to waste, inefficiency, and collapse: Insufficient knowledge. He won a Nobel Prize. But it turns out he was righter than he knew.

In his “The Use of Knowledge In Society,” Hayek explained that information about supply and demand, scarcity and abundance, wants and needs exists in no single place in any economy. The economy is simply too large and complicated for such information to be gathered together.

Any economic planner who attempts to do so will wind up hopelessly uninformed and behind the times, reacting to economic changes in a clumsy, too-late fashion and then being forced to react again to fix the problems that the previous mistakes created, leading to new problems, and so on.

Turns out, it’s not just what they don’t know that’s the problem.

Like Ronald Reagan said, “It’s what they know that ain’t so.”

Today I read an interesting piece by Lane Wallace in The Atlantic, The Bias of Veteran Journalists. In that piece Lane noted that she was disturbed when she recognized her fellow journalists were asking questions that indicated that they’d already chosen a story line and only asked questions that would further that story line. I recommend you read the whole piece.

But what jumped out at me was this:

In his new book, How We Decide, Jonah Lehrer cites a research study done by U.C. Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock. Tetlock questioned 284 people who made their living “commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends,” asking them to make predictions about future events. Over the course of the study, Tetlock collected quantitative data on over 82,000 predictions, as well as information from follow-up interviews with the subjects about the thought processes they’d used to come to those predictions.

His findings were surprising. Most of Tetlock’s questions about the future events were put in the form of specific, multiple choice questions, with three possible answers. But for all their expertise, the pundits’ predictions turned out to be correct less than 33% of the time. Which meant, as Lehrer puts it, that a “dart-throwing chimp” would have had a higher rate of success. Tetlock also found that the least accurate predictions were made by the most famous experts in the group.

Why was that? According to Lehrer,

The central error diagnosed by Tetlock was the sin of certainty, which led the ‘experts’ to impose a top-down solution on their decision-making processes … When pundits were convinced that they were right, they ignored any brain areas that implied they might be wrong.

Tetlock himself, Lehrer says, concluded that “The dominant danger [for pundits] remains hubris, the vice of closed-mindedness, of dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly.”

It’s not just pundits. It’s the people that Thomas Sowell characterizes as “The Anointed” who gravitate into government to save us poor rubes from ourselves.

Apply Tetlock’s observations, for example, to the Anthropogenic Global Warming Intelligentsia. Or the gun control organizations that constantly predict “Wild-West shootouts” and blood in the streets after each incremental repeal of gun control.

“Dart-throwing chimps” indeed.

The Free Ice Cream Freezer’s Busted

I know that the First Rule of Blogging™ is Post Something Every Day™.

I ain’t feeling it.

I am, however, feeling the onset of Spring.

I hate Spring.

Itchy, goopy eyes; pre- and post-nasal drip; coughing fits that leave my chest hurting; sneezing; antihistamines that damned near put me to sleep at my desk, a serious case of the trots from the post-nasal drip; etc. etc. etc.

Did I mention that I hate Spring?

Well, CRAP

The “H” on my HVAC roof unit quit last night. Called out a service guy to see what the deal is. Here’s a picture:

If you look closely, you can see that the heat exchangers are cracked. This means that carbon monoxide poisoning would have happened had the safety system not shut off the burners.

This unit is ten years old, and it’s been pretty much a piece of crap since the day it went in. I’m replacing it with a Trane.

I guess the credit card’s going to carry a balance for a little while.

Dammit.

Now for Something Completely Different – and COOL!

Tom Wright of San Diego has created something definitely very, very cool: street-legal bumper cars.

Yes, bumper cars – those things you used to ride around in at the County Fair and run into your best friends in at about 2.2 MPH.

But Tom’s are powered by 500 or 750cc motorcycle engines with six-speed sequential transmissions, and are capable of speeds up to 100 MPH. And they look BAD:


You can read more about these here.

I love America.

I’m Going to be in Chicago, Monday

Anybody want to meet up for dinner? I arrive at O’Hare at 5:45PM. I’m staying over near West Chicago, probably Naperville. I fly out Tuesday at 7:25PM. I don’t know if I’ll have much free time Tuesday before the flight, but it’s possible.

UPDATE: Oakbrook Terrace, Ditka’s, 7:00PM.

Some Good News Out of Chile

Some Good News Out of Chile

My previous employer has an office in Santiago. When I started work for the company, a couple of the guys in the office here in Tucson were transfers from Chile working here temporarily. They went home at the end of 2008. On Monday I talked to someone still working at my old office and asked them to keep me updated on the situation. I got an email yesterday just before I headed home.

The Santiago office building survived the quake. It has been inspected and has been determined safe for occupancy. Eighty-five percent of the staff showed up to work on March 1. No employees or immediate family members were killed or severely injured. Obviously, they’ve got power, telecom, and IT problems, but other than that, they’re ready to do engineering work.

Chile’s going to need a lot of that in the next few years. They’ve got a good crew there.

I Bet He was a Closet Teabagger

I Bet He was a Closet Teabagger!

Isn’t this interesting:

The Strange World Of Dr. Anthrax

After the Department of Justice last month formally closed its probe of the 2001 anthrax attacks, the FBI released the first batch of documents detailing the years-long investigation that ended with officials concluding that Bruce Ivins, a government scientist who committed suicide in July 2008, was responsible for the mailings that killed five victims. The records, released pursuant to Freedom of Information Act requests, portray Ivins as becoming increasingly unhinged as it became clear that he was the principal target of the FBI’s “Amerithrax” probe. Additionally, the memos–a selection of which you’ll find on the following pages–reveal how agents examined every aspect of Ivins’s life, monitored his e-mails, searched his trash, and were even surveilling his Maryland home at the exact time he was inside overdosing. Despite being an FBI target, Ivins was often forthcoming about the details of his strange obsessions and private life. For example, as seen below, when agents executed search warrants in late-2007, an FBI supervisor asked Ivins if he was worried about those raids. Ivins said he was, noting that he did things a “middle age man should not do,” adding that his actions would “not be acceptable to most people.” He then noted that agents searching his basement would find a “bag of material that he uses to ‘cross-dress,'” according to an interview report.

And:

Ivins wrote that “Dick Cheney scares me. The Patriot Act is so unconstitutional it’s not even funny.” He added, “I’m voting for Obama!”

Yup, another member of “the Base!” I can’t wait for the New York Times’ Paul Krugman to opine!

UPDATE: Reader “el coronado” comments:

what’s most interesting to me about the FBI “closure” of the matter by blaming everyhting on the dead guy, ivins – dead men can’t defend themselves, and besides, he was an odd duck – is the timing of that annoucement. teh WSJ published a devastating obliteration of the FBI’s “case” against ivins on 25 january of this year, written by edward jay epstein. here are the huglughts:

1) the anthrax in question waa aerosolized by means of attaching the spores to silicon, “according to the US armed forces institute of pathology. (…) if so, then somehow silicon was *added* [my emph.] to the anthrax. but ivins, no matter how weird he may have been, ***had neither the set of skills nor the means*** to attach silicon to anthrax spores.” {again, my emph.]
2) “at a minimum, such a process would require highly specialized equipment that did not exist anywhere in ivins’s lab – or, for that matter, anywhere at (where he worked).”
3) the FBI was oddly releuctant to inform congress of the precise percentage of silicon contained in the anthrax used in the attacks. this was apparantly because…
4) (finally) “according to the FBI lab, 1.4% of the powder in the leahy letter was silicon. ‘this is a shcokingly high proportion’, explained stuart jacobson, an expert in small particle chemistry.’it is a number one would expect from a deliberate weaponization of anthrax.'”
5) the FBI stuck to their story: hadda be ivins. maybe he did it at home! so, “to back up their theory, the FBI contacted scientists at the lawrence livermore national labs to conduct experiments in which anthrax is accidentally absorbed from a media heavily laced with silicon. [the results of those tests) effectively blew the FBI’s theory out of the water. the livermore scientists had tried 56 times to replicate the high silicon content without any success. (…) they never came close. most results were an *order of magnitude lower* [me again] with some as low as .001%.(!)”
6) therefore, “since ivins had neither the equipment or skills to weaponize anthrax with silicon, the some other party MUST HAVE done it.”

the FBI later responded in a WSJ letter to the editor in which they argued, paraphrased, “huh-UHHH!!!!”. they offered no other details.

and now, a mere month later, the “case” is “closed”. so who do we believe here? a large federal bureaucracy well-known for its belief that maintaining its image supercedes all other priorities, including “truth” and “law enforcement”? or a man respected worldwide as a meticulous and accurate researcher? and if you choose to believe the FBI is lying, as i do, for whatever reason, what else might they have lied about? hm…..think, think…..coughhoriuchicough….

Interesting . . .

As commenter “TheSiliconGraybeard” notes,

There seems to be an attitude that shows up in law enforcement, something along the lines of “we got somebody for it”. It sometimes doesn’t seem quite so important that they got the right somebody, just that they got a warm body arrested and/or jailed.

I’ve noted that in this blog. We don’t have a “justice” system, we have a legal system, and the metric seems to be “did we get a conviction or at least close the case?” So if the WSJ is correct, it would appear that the FBI hounded a not-very-stable man into suicide, and then said “HE DID IT!”

I guess it MUST’VE been one of us “cultists!”