(Blogging from work again. Left last night at 7:00PM, back again at 6:15AM.)
Physicist Stephen Hawking recently declared that humans must go into space if we want to survive as a species. I’m pretty much with him on that one. I’d hoped (since I grew up on Florida’s Space Coast during the race to the moon) that we’d already have colonies on the moon and a significant presence in space.
Two guys floating around Earth in a Greyhound Bus is not a “significant presence” in my book.
There are two hurdles that have to be overcome for this to happen, though. One: we have to have the will to do it. Two: we have to have the money. To some extent will equals money, but even if the ready cash was on hand, if you’re not willing to spend it on getting out of here, then it might as well not exist. Leaving the planet is expensive – or at least it will be until we develop technologies that reduce the cost.
Right now it costs (officially) about $5-10k to put one pound into low Earth orbit. The real cost, when you add in the expense of the support infrastructure behind a launch and ground support during a mission, is probably more on the order of $40-50k. Assuming your average buck-naked human being weighs 150Lb (obviously we’re not talking about your average American here) and you’re looking at between $1.5 and $75 million dollars just to put someone into a not-too-stable orbit around the Big Blue Marble. Getting to escape velocity costs a lot more. (The $1.5M price tag obviously ignores things like life-support.)
There are other ways to get into space. Glenn Reynolds thinks that a Space Elevator is a good idea, and the idea of a gigantic magnetic-induction catapult has been floating around for decades, but both are multi-billion dollar investments with engineering, safety, environmental, and materials problems of their own.
I’m not sure the United States has the political will to do the job. At this point, I’m not sure we have the political will to defeat the forces of Islamism. I’ve written before that it’s possible that China may be the country that first succeeds in colonizing off-planet. Dictatorships don’t have as much of a problem with “political will” as democratic forms do, and they can wring the money out of the rest of the world, so long as we keep buying from what are largely State-owned industries.
In the same speech, Hawking said,
We are getting closer to answering the age-old questions: Why are we here? Where did we come from?
That’s great, but I’m more interested in “Where are we going, and how will we get there?”