Tim Blair posts today on the topic of “Peak Oil” – a subject near and dear to the heart of at least one of my regular readers. Tim quotes the New York Times (!) pooh-poohing the idea that oil production has peaked or will very soon:
“Within the last decade, technology advances have made it possible to unlock more oil from old fields, and, at the same time, higher oil prices have made it economical for companies to go after reserves that are harder to reach. With plenty of oil still left in familiar locations, forecasts that the world’s reserves are drying out have given way to predictions that more oil can be found than ever before …
“‘It’s the fifth time to my count that we’ve gone through a period when it seemed the end of oil was near and people were talking about the exhaustion of resources,’ said Daniel Yergin, the chairman of Cambridge Energy and author of a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of oil, who cited similar concerns in the 1880s, after both world wars and in the 1970s. ‘Back then we were going to fly off the oil mountain. Instead we had a boom and oil went to $10 instead of $100.'”
But, as Tim notes, “Incredibly, abundance denialists simply won’t accept the oil consensus.”
Like this guy I found in the Tucson Weekly guest editorial slot for last week. You have to read this:
Expect the beginning of the end of Tucson as we know it to arrive next year
By GUY MCPHERSON
For a writer, there are few experiences more thrilling than words that generate action. I was therefore elated when the group Sustainable Tucson grew from my column about the impending Tucson apocalypse (Guest Commentary, April 27, 2006).
Lest you think low gas prices are cause for apathy, I’m calling for more action.
Considerable evidence indicates we passed the world oil peak near the end of 2005. Oil supply follows a bell-shaped curve, so we have been easing down for slightly more than a year.
Now that we’ve burned the inexpensive half of our planetary endowment of oil, we need to prepare ourselves to fall off the oil-supply cliff. This will occur in 2008. The economic, societal and political implications are profound, and discussion of them is curiously lacking from the mainstream media.
I thought these gloom-n-doomers had learned better than to pick dates – especially dates within their forseeable lifetimes – for the sky to come crashing down. After all, Paul Ehrlich predicted in 1968 that by the 70’s or 80’s hundreds of millions of people would inevitably starve to death because we simply wouldn’t be able to grow or distribute enough food to feed them.
Uh, Paul? It’s 2007. No mass famine.
Of course, Mr. McPherson is just a little ahead of the latest curve, since there are a bunch of people running around with their hair on fire, shouting that “we have ten years to save the planet!”
Hey! If McPherson is right, “Peak Oil” will shut down entire economies of every nation around the world! And in 2008!
Whoopee! We’re all saved!
Well, not all of us:
A series of recessions triggered by the high price of gasoline will be followed, within a decade, by a depression that will make the Great Depression seem like the good old days.
We will not recover from this depression before runaway greenhouse effects doom our species to extinction.
Apparently not any of us…
At the very least, we can expect oil prices to exceed $400 per barrel within a decade. At those oil prices, you can kiss goodbye the days of happy motoring, the use of fossil fuels to deliver water and air conditioning to Tucson, and the U.S. dollar.
Mr. McPherson, I’ll make a bet with you. If by 2018 oil is $400 a barrel, I’ll pay you $1,000. But if it’s under $150, you owe me $100,000. Deal?
In light of this knowledge, and the cheerful demeanor with which I pass it along, people often ask my advice as they plan for life without fossil fuels. (All energy sources are derivatives of oil, so expensive oil signals the end of our ability to extract and deliver coal, natural gas and uranium, and seriously impedes our ability to manufacture wind turbines and solar panels.)
“In light of this knowledge“ – the guy’s Cassandra! But pay attention to the rest of this:
In an attempt to further the much-needed discussion about the looming post-carbon era, I offer the following Tucson-centric perspective.
This country’s ever-expanding economy since World War II, coupled with a profound sense of denial, suggests that relatively few people are prepared for the post-carbon era. As a result, you can expect increasing civil unrest in the decade ahead. The rule of law is likely to give way to anarchy. Local heroes are desperately needed.
Do not expect corporations or elected officials to bail us out. Rather, the collapse of the economy will render them meaningless. The federal government, and then the state government, will join Wal-Mart in simply fading away from your life. We will need plenty of local heroes to step into the breach. If you are honest, compassionate and interested in serving others, this city needs you.
In the very near future, you can expect to see a much smaller population than currently resides in Tucson. If you are committed to remaining in Tucson–and if you don’t own a horse, you won’t have much choice in five years or so–your task is a daunting one. You will have to secure your water supply by harvesting water. You will need enough water to grow your own food, too: $400 oil spells the end of Safeway and Trader Joe’s, and disruptions in the delivery of food, water and electricity to the Old Pueblo will begin next year. Bombing Iran will exacerbate these problems, but I’d rather not think about that.
As an enlightened citizen, you’ll be forced to live in two worlds. You’ll work and play in your “normal” life, saving money for a rainy day and supporting those you love. But in the back of your mind, you’ll know about the new world ahead, and you’ll be planning to be part of a smaller community that lives close to the earth. You’ll be learning how to harvest rainwater, grow your own food and live with far fewer resources.
As you plan for your own personal post-carbon future, please advocate for the city’s nascent efforts in sustainability. Implore city leaders to prepare for the days, less than a decade from now, when we have no fuel for private automobiles, no food-delivery system for the 3,000-mile Caesar salad on which we have come to depend and no water pumped across the desert to feed our insatiable desires.
This guy is looking forward to the End Times – something I thought only Fundamentalist Christians got accused of. I think he’s watched the “Mad Max” movies too many times. “Local heroes”? Does he have a leather suit, a knee brace, and a sawed-off in his closet?
I wonder if he’s stockpiled any arms and ammo?
Nah, probably not. He’ll be depending on other people to be the “local heroes.” His kind always do.
Now, the worst part of this whole thing?
Guy McPherson is a professor of natural resources at the University of Arizona and author of many books, including Killing the Natives: Has the American Dream Become a Nightmare? and Letters to a Young Academic.
The only people who can consistently function outside reality are the insane in asylums and tenured professors in theirs. It would be funny if only this guy wasn’t teaching our kids.
How did we grow a generation of people in which such a large percentage hate their own civilization? Can anyone answer that?
Edited to add:
Commenter “M. Smith in Phoenix, AZ” inquired:
Please tell me you saw the OTHER “Guest Commentary” that he wrote in April of last year? If not, scroll to the bottom of the Tucson Weekly page and his other article is the last link. The money paragraphs are 2, 3 and 10.
This guy needs to be dragged out into the desert and left to fend for himself, just to see how in touch he really is with his local eco-system.
I hadn’t, but at his urging I read the piece in question.
My comment in reply:
I see he’s moved up his timetable.
And I notice that he’s still living in Tucson.
I guess tenure is more important to him than surviving “The Greatest Depression.”
Or he really doesn’t believe his own bullshit.
Three guesses as to what my take on that is, and the first two don’t count.